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SMD is forecasting 151,000 Non Farm Payroll adds in September. This includes a 10% adjustment down

SMD is forecasting 151,000 Non Farm Payroll adds in the September Bureau of labor Statistics Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release. This includes a 10% downward adjustment for the Harvey, Irma and Maria hurricanes. We expect this downward adjustment to be short term, and will be adjusting our next month forecast upward. The hurricanes' damage will not create permanent job losses, and in fact may increase jobs in out months from increased relative construction activity. Our 151k forecast is well above the Bloomberg consensus of 100k, and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast high of 140k. We think that forecasters are overestimating the effects of the natural disasters on jobs. All else equal,