Figure 1 – Filled/Created Jobs Index up for 3rd month in a row
Our core indicators (derived from the LinkUp RAW jobs dataset2) show the following:
Jobs Filled up again to near the highs since the recession
New Jobs Posted, also grew for 3rd Month in a row, but continue to lag Jobs Filled.
Total Active Job Postings down > 4% in April.
Labor Market Slack is at its lowest since before the recession.
Employers are posting fewer NEW jobs than they are FILLING for the 5th consecutive month, suggesting we are nearing the top of this business cycle. If we are indeed near the top of this business Cycle, this suggests that the Filled Jobs indicator (we count a job as ‘filled’ when it is removed from a career portal, presumably because it was filled with an employee) is overstating filled jobs and a larger proportion of jobs postings that are ‘removed’ are merely being taken off a company’s career portal by companies before they are filled.
Our Job Duration indicator currently suggests that slack is at its lowest point in the history of the LinkUp data set. We derive this indicator based on the average length of time jobs are posted for the month. For April, job post ‘duration’ extended to 57 days, the largest in the daily data set which begins in August of 2007. This would also suggest we are near or at the top of this cycle.
We believe the US is nearing, or probably has already passed the peak of the current business cycle, as companies are not attempting to continue to grow employee ranks at the same pace they have since the recession. In fact, NEW job postings have underperformed FILLED for 8 of the last 9 months (and the last 5 months), something never seen in the history of the data.
The continued decline in TOTAL Active Job Postings, and lagging Job Post Creation suggests we may be at or nearing the end of the road for significant job gains.
Based on these four indicators, we believe that the April 2016 NFP will be stronger than last month, and deliver an upside surprise of 241,000 Non-Farm Payroll adds compared to the Bloomberg NFP Consensus Forecast of 205,000, and that we have likely reached an inflection point for jobs growth.
1 The information and opinions in this report were prepared by SmartMarketData, LLC. SmartMarketData, LLC makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. The report is opinion based on objective data observed in
® RAW, and is not necessarily the opinion of JobDig, Inc., the owner of
® RAW data.
2
® RAW is the world's broadest and deepest near real-time jobs dataset, composed of job postings gathered directly from company career portals, daily. The data set has over 30,000 companies, and 9 years of history.
® RAW is real-time and objective, NOT delayed and survey based. LinkUp minimizes duplicates, and eliminates stale data. For more information, please contact info@SmartMarketData.com.
2
® RAW is the world’s broadest and deepest near real-time jobs dataset, composed of job postings gathered directly from company career portals, daily. The data set has over 30,000 companies, and 9 years of history.
® RAW is real-time and objective, NOT delayed and survey based. LinkUp minimizes duplicates, and eliminates stale data. For more information, please contact info@SmartMarketData.com.
