SmartMarketData LLC forecasts the United States added 182,000 jobs in December, up slightly from November, and slightly above the consensus forecast of 175,000. Our key measures showed active job postings down 3% for the month, with job posts created down 1.3% and job posts filled up 3.6%.
Our Job Post Duration (a measure of labor market slack) ticked up for the third month in a row to 86 still off the high of 98 reached early in 2016. This suggests a tightening labor market which makes it harder for employers to hire, and forebodes pressure on future NFP numbers.
Job Post Duration - SMD USMacro 10,000 Index
Our Active Jobs Index continues to decline (in blue below). This also suggests pressure on future job gains.
Active Jobs Index - SMD USMacro 10,000 Index
