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  • Larry Green, CFA

Expect NFP adds of 158,000, Weaker than the consensus forecast of 190,000. The Bloomberg low foreca


Our core analytics are based on the premise that company hiring is indicative of management’s perception of the prospects for their business. A company that is posting more jobs, expects to grow, and vice-versa.

This month, our core indicators (derived from the LinkUp RAW jobs dataset2) show the following:

1) Active Jobs Index continues down 4.9% m/m. The 3rd down month in a row.

2) New Jobs Posted were down 21% m/m, to be expected from seasonal influence, coming off y/y increases. That said, the rate of decline is greater than previous years.

3) Labor market slack tightened again slightly from record levels earlier this year. We consider our duration indicator a proxy for labor market slack/the ability for companies to find employees.

The net is, jobs activity declined as seasonally expected. In February and March we would expect to see our active and created jobs indicators increase. If they don’t increase, then we are likely at a structural peak in the current economic cycle. We have been in a slight down trend since our primary indicator (active jobs index) peaked mid-2015. So stay tuned!

Based on our proprietary methodology, we believe that the January 2017 NFP will be 158,000 net adds, and deliver a downside surprise to the consensus 190,000 job adds. We are near the low Bloomberg forecast of 155,000.

1 The information and opinions in this report were prepared by SmartMarketData, LLC. SmartMarketData, LLC makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. The report is opinion based on objective data observed in LinkUp®RAW, and is not necessarily the opinion of JobDig, Inc., the owner of LinkUP®RAW data.

2 LinkUP®RAW is the world’s broadest and deepest near real-time jobs dataset, composed of job postings gathered directly from company career portals, daily. The data set has over 30,000 companies, and 9 years of history. LinkUP®RAW is real-time and objective, NOT delayed and survey based. LinkUp minimizes duplicates, and eliminates stale data. For more information, please contact: info@SmartMarketData.com.


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