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  • Larry Green, CFA

Jobs will outperform again! We forecast Net New NFP Jobs added of 236k

Another strong month for jobs tomorrow when the BLS releases their monthly Non-Farm Payrolls number (NFP).

We are forecasting 236k net new jobs, up from last months print of 211k. Our forecast is higher than the Bloomberg high forecast of 231k, and far above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 185k.

We think unemployment will tick down another notch to 4.3% and the labor participation rate will improve a notch to 62.8%.

We utilize the LinkUp Jobs database, a real-time set of data and analytics which tracks the job postings of over 30,000 companies. The LinkUp data is a key component of our forecast methodology, and an up and coming alternative data set generating alpha all across Wall Street.

We saw for the survey period things to continue to chug along, with Active Job Postings up 2.1%, Created Jobs up 19%, and Filled jobs up 24%.

In addition, we saw or Job Post Duration indicator down again to 84 suggesting labor slack is increasing and companies are finding it slightly easier to hire.

Early look at the June survey period suggests things will continue along this track...

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