• Larry Green, CFA

SMD forecasts net new jobs in June of 143K in tomorrow's BLS NFP release


SmartMarketData is forecasting an addition of 143K jobs in the BLS Non Farm Payrolls number tomorrow AM. We show a very slight improvement from the previous months' miss of 138K. Our forecast is at the low end of the Bloomberg range of 140K-200K, and well below the consensus of 170K.

Our Duration indicator declined again to 82 Days, down from 84 last month, and continues a downward trend since the beginning of the year. This suggests labor-slack continues to improve, albeit still at the high end.

Using LinkUp's® job database of near real time job postings from over 30,000 companies (https://www.smartmarketdata.com/linkup-raw), we did see a pronounced decline in Job Posts created during the survey period which would foreshadow continued declining NFP jobs in the near future.


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