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  • Larry Green, CFA

SMD is forecasting a big number for tomorrow's BLS NFP. Net new jobs will be 233k, above the Bl

SmartMarketData LLC is forecasting net new jobs of 233k for July in tomorrow's release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Non-Farm Payrolls. The Bloomberg economist consensus low estimate is 144k, with a consensus mean of 178k, and a high of 220k. SMD also forecasts the unemployment rate will drop to 4.3%.

Based on the LinkUp® Jobs Data Set of over 30,000 companies' job postings, SMD has developed a unique and proprietary real-time look at the true job picture. The LinkUp® job data has over 10 years of history , currently capturing greater than 4 million jobs per day from over 16,000 active companies world wide.

July showed a decline in active job posts, as well as filled job posts month to month, but benefited from a large increase in new posts in May.

We also note that the job post duration (our proxy for labor market demand) stayed relatively flat at 82 days.

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