- Larry Green, CFA
The Forecast Models are all Broken, but extreme Job Post Declines back a -18.5 MILLION NFP print!
Tomorrow the BLS will print a COVID-19 Non Farm Payroll job loss of -18.5 Million, a loss far and way bigger than ever. Not much to say except that our key input, the LinkUp Jobs Data, confirms that declines continue and have not even bottomed.
For perspective, we have been issuing Macro, Industry, and Company Level jobs research based on the
LinkUp Job Post Dataset. This daily data for over 50,000 companies world wide is the basis for our monthly NFP forecast, but also extremely useful in the context of understanding in real-time what is happening in the world of hiring. You can see from the chart, which we update daily here (https://www.smartmarketdata.com/covid-19), that we have seen a 38% decline in advertised jobs in less than 2 months (down almost 1.4 Million Since March 13). Companies creating new job posts has completely dried up, but created job posts declines seem to have bottomed (green line above) - a possible sign overall job losses have gotten close to bottoming.