SmartMarketData, LLC is forecasting net non-farm payrolls to increase by 199,000 jobs in October. This is slightly below the Bloomberg consensus low estimate of 200k, and well below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 325k.
While we believe that last months negative print (-33k) was in error and will be adjusted upward this month, we have not seen direct evidence of the dramatic increases economists are predicting. We are seeing a modest increase again though from our last month's estimate of 151K. SmartMarketData's forecasts are proprietary and use the real-time LinkUp jobs data as a key component. LinkUp provides near real-time job listings for over 30,000 companies.
We are forecasting Unemployment to tic up 0.1% to 4.3%. We are forecasting next weeks September JOLTS to be 6.284 down from our preliminary estimate of 6.376 million given last month. We are forecasting the October JOLTS, more than a month early at 6.418 million.