We are forecasting 256,000 net new non-farm payroll jobs added in the month of March, above the Bloomberg consensus of 172K, and the Bloomberg consensus high of 225K.
While the number is a decline from last months , we still see strong jobs growth in our model.
SMD uses the LinkUp Job Post Dataas a primary input to our model. This dataset consists of over 50,000 companies job postings. We believe job postings are the best near real-time indicator of a company management team's expectations for their future business prospects, and at a macro level a wholly objective real-time look at how many jobs were filled.
We expect average hourly earnings to tic up 0.3%, above consensus.
We expect the unemployment rate to tic down to 4.0%.