SmartMarketData, LLC is forecasting a below Bloomberg consensus (190,000) and Bloomberg low (150,000) forecast of 146,000 net new NFP (non-farm payroll) jobs for October, 2018. We forecast the unemployment rate to decline to 3.6%. We forecast average hourly earnings to tic up .3%.
Our proprietary forecast methodology uses the LinkUp Jobs Data of real time job posts for almost 50,000 companies as a core input. This alternative data set of company job posts are a company management team's best expectation for their company's future employment, and therefore their company's expected growth. When rolled up to a macro level, we believe this gives a near real time look at job growth for the entire US economy.