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  • Larry Green, CFA

No Brainer, BLS NFP will see an upward revision to last month's disappointment, and higher than

While we over estimated last month, we continue to see strength in companies looking for employees.

We utilize the LinkUp Jobs database, a real-time set of data and analytics which tracks the job postings of over 30,000 companies. The LinkUp data is a key component of our forecast methodology, and an up and coming alternative data set generating alpha all across Wall Street. Our analysis shows jobs created, posted, and filled all up in April, following the trend we saw at the and of March.

In tomorrow's BLS NFP (non-farm payrolls) release, we expect to 1) see an upward revision to last months disappointing 98K, and 2) see an above Bloomberg Consensus Forecast print of 222K net non farm payroll adds. Bloomberg Consensus is at 175k, and the Bloomberg Forecast high is 220K, so we are expecting a more than solid number vs. the Wall Street pros.

We have also seen our Job Post Duration indicator decline slightly to 85, down slightly from last month and in a reasonable comfortable level vs. history. We use this indicator as a proxy for how hard it is to find employees to hire, or for labor slack in the economy. This suggests things chugging along.

So expect a big number tomorrow relative to last month and relative to the current high Wall Street Forecast. Also expect a bump up revision to last months NFP as well.

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