SMD is forecasting an above Bloomberg consensus and above Bloomberg consensus high non farm payrolls job print of 249K net new jobs in tomorrow's Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. The consensus is 205K, and the consensus high is 230K. New job posts continue to increase.
We are forecasting unemployment to fall to 4.0%.
We are forecasting average hourly earnings to continue to tic up.
We base our forecasts on our proprietary research which uses the real-time LinkUp Jobs Data as a major factor in our model. LinkUp indexes jobs directly from company websites – currently about 4.5 million jobs indexed daily from 50,000 company websites. Their search engine is updated daily, so there are no expired or stale jobs, and there are no duplicate jobs because they only index jobs from a single source – the employer’s website itself. Equally as significant, they don’t aggregate jobs from job boards, and have completely eliminated job board pollution (scams, fraud, lead-gen, phishing jobs, etc.) from their unique and relevant real-time job market data.