SmartMarketData, LLC is forecasting a below Bloomberg consensus low (150,000) forecast of 140,000 net new NFP (non-farm payroll) jobs for August, 2019. We forecast the unemployment rate at 3.7%. We forecast average hourly earnings to tic up 0.2%.
Our proprietary forecast methodology uses the LinkUp Jobs Data of real time job posts for almost 50,000 companies as a core input. This alternative data set of company job posts are a company management team's best expectation for their company's future employment, and therefore their company's expected growth. When rolled up to a macro level, we believe this gives a near real-time look at job growth for the entire US economy.