#LinkUp

May 31, 2018
1 min

SMD is forecasting a below consensus print of 178K net new jobs in tomorrow's non-farm payrolls

SmartMarketData LLC is forecasting 178K net new non-farm payroll jobs in tomorrows Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report, below the Bloomberg consensus 190K. We are also looking at the unemployment rate staying flat at 3.9%, and average hourly earnings to tick up .1%. Based on what we are seeing, next month could be another miss versus consensus as well. Our forecasts are based on proprietary models which use the real-time LinkUp Jobs Data set of over 100 million job posts f

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Larry Green, CFA

May 3, 2018
1 min

SMD is forecasting a below consensus low print of 140K Net New Non-Farm Payrolls in tomorrow's B

SmartMarketData, LLC is forecasting 140K net new non-farm payroll jobs in April, below the Bloomberg consensus (191K), and below the Bloomberg low estimate (145K). Using our proprietary model, which utilizes the LinkUp Job Post Data, a daily, real-time data set comprised of over 50,000 companies job posts, with over 10 years of history, we saw job post creation, and active job posts decline in April leading in part to our street low estimate. We expect average hourly earnings

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Larry Green, CFA

Apr 5, 2018
1 min

SMD is forecasting a 256K print in tomorrows Jobs number. Above the Bloomberg consensus high of 225

We are forecasting 256,000 net new non-farm payroll jobs added in the month of March, above the Bloomberg consensus of 172K, and the Bloomberg consensus high of 225K. While the number is a decline from last months , we still see strong jobs growth in our model. SMD uses the LinkUp Job Post Data as a primary input to our model. This dataset consists of over 50,000 companies job postings. We believe job postings are the best near real-time indicator of a company management te

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Larry Green, CFA

Mar 8, 2018
1 min

SMD is forecasting an above consensus and above consensus high NFP print of 249K net new jobs in tom

SMD is forecasting an above Bloomberg consensus and above Bloomberg consensus high non farm payrolls job print of 249K net new jobs in tomorrow's Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report. The consensus is 205K, and the consensus high is 230K. New job posts continue to increase. We are forecasting unemployment to fall to 4.0%. We are forecasting average hourly earnings to continue to tic up. We base our forecasts on our proprietary research which uses the real-time LinkUp Jobs

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Larry Green, CFA

Feb 2, 2018
1 min

SMD is forecasting 118K Net new Adds in tomorrows BLS NFP report.

SmartMarketData LLC is forecasting 118K Net new adds in tomorrow's Bureau of Labor Statistics Non farm Payrolls Report. This is significantly below the Bloomberg Consensus of 175K, and below the Bloomberg consensus Low of 150K, We are forecasting the Unemployment Rate will stay the same at 4.1%. We expect average hourly earning to tick up 0.3%. We expect the labor participation rate to tick up to 62.8%. #SmartMarketData #Quant #BLS #LinkUp #Jobs #NFP

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Larry Green, CFA

Jan 5, 2018
1 min

SMD is forecasting 193k net new adds in tomorrow's BLS NFP

SmartMarketData LLC is forecasting a net increase of 193,000 jobs in December. This is slightly above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 190k, and a decline from November's 228k net adds. Our proprietary model which uses the LinkUp Jobs data set of daily job posts from over 35,000 companies. We believe this dataset gives an objective look at company management teams expectations for future hiring, and therefore future employment trends at the company and macro level. We b

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Larry Green, CFA

Dec 7, 2017
1 min

SmartMarketData is forecasting the BLS NFP jobs number for November to print at 259K, above the Bloo

SmartMarketData is forecasting the BLS NFP jobs number for November to print at 259K, above the Bloomberg Consensus High of 250K, and consensus of 190K. Our proprietary model uses the LinkUp RAW Jobs data set as the primary input. LinkUp RAW is a real-time daily data set of job postings world wide, for over 35K companies. We believe this data is the most objective and real time look at job placements, and company management expectations of their future business prospects. W

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Larry Green, CFA

Oct 5, 2017
1 min

SMD is forecasting 151,000 Non Farm Payroll adds in September. This includes a 10% adjustment down

SMD is forecasting 151,000 Non Farm Payroll adds in the September Bureau of labor Statistics Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) release. This includes a 10% downward adjustment for the Harvey, Irma and Maria hurricanes. We expect this downward adjustment to be short term, and will be adjusting our next month forecast upward. The hurricanes' damage will not create permanent job losses, and in fact may increase jobs in out months from increased relative construction activity. Our 151k f

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Larry Green, CFA

Sep 1, 2017
1 min

SMD is forecasting 179,000 Net New Non-Farm Payroll adds in August. Slightly below consensus

Not a very exciting report. We expect 179,000 BLS NFP jobs in August, slightly below the Bloomberg Consensus of 180,000. This is our first consensus forecast, with a bias to a slight miss... #BLS #NFP #LinkUp

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Larry Green, CFA

May 4, 2017
1 min

No Brainer, BLS NFP will see an upward revision to last month's disappointment, and higher than

While we over estimated last month, we continue to see strength in companies looking for employees. We utilize the LinkUp Jobs database, a real-time set of data and analytics which tracks the job postings of over 30,000 companies. The LinkUp data is a key component of our forecast methodology, and an up and coming alternative data set generating alpha all across Wall Street. Our analysis shows jobs created, posted, and filled all up in April, following the trend we saw at t

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Larry Green, CFA

Apr 6, 2017
1 min

SmartMarketData, LLC expects tomorrow's BLS NFP to add 232,000 jobs, down slightly from last mon

We expect the non-farm payrolls number for March to come in at 232,000 net new jobs. Our forecast is higher than the Bloomberg consensus of 175,000, and higher than the top of the Bloomberg forecast range of 202,000. We saw active and created job postings decelerate slightly at the beginning of March, only to accelerate toward the end of the month suggesting April may be another strong number. We also note that our Job Post Duration indicator has ticked up for the 4th straig

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